Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential election this month. Probably.
Despite the rise of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, in both first and second round polls, Macron will likely end a 20-year-old French incumbents’ curse on April 24 and win a second term in the Elysée Palace.
But the race, frozen for so long, has lurched into more uncertain territory in the last 10 days, and Macron himself encouraged fears of a Le Pen victory at a big rally near Paris on Saturday. He suggested that a far-right triumph in France would fit a disturbing pattern of “great global disorder” – geopolitical, environmental, sanitary and economic. Such a
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