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Oct 13, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws during the first half of a game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
The NFL is quickly coming to a close heading into the festive holiday season. As the temperatures plummet in December, the divisional races around the NFL are heating up. Entering Week 16, no team has celebrated a division championship, but the results this weekend will surely alter that outlook heading into the final full week of the 2025 calendar year.
The New York Giants failed me once again in an eight-point loss to the Washington Commanders…. But at least I saw that loss coming. The Carolina Panthers let a win slip away against a four win New Orleans Saints squad. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers played savior in an emphatic win over the Miami Dolphins. The record in 2025 slips to 28 wins and 17 losses, a 62% winning percentage through 45 games.
Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)
The Chicago Bears will look for revenge in their home matchup against the Green Bay Packers in Saturday night contest in Week 16. Green Bay secured a 28-21 win in Week 14 – the only loss suffered by Chicago since Week 9 in mid-November. Caleb Williams and the Bears hold a tenuous one-game lead in the NFC North which makes this mid-afternoon matchup critical in the dash for the NFL playoffs.
Green Bay was riding a four-game streak before last week’s loss in Denver. The Packers defense will need to adjust to a new normal without star linebacker Micah Parsons, who was placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL on Wednesday. It will be a much different look for defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley without Parsons roaming around the defensive front in Green Bay. How will the Packers respond against Chicago’s fifth-ranked offense?
According to ESPN, the Packers are slim road favorites with a 59% chance of victory on Saturday night.
Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The NFC South is up for grabs as the Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will gain the upper hand towards a guaranteed playoff spot after their Week 16 meeting. It will be the first of two meetings over the next three weeks to determine the fate of the division.
Carolina squandered a chance to secure a lead in the standings in a disappointing loss to New Orleans in Week 15. It’s been a win-loss sequence for the Panthers since a winning streak was snapped against Buffalo in Week 8. If that trend continues, Carolina is “scheduled” for a home victory over Tampa Bay.
It’s hard to bet against Baker Mayfield, but Tampa Bay has celebrated victory only once since their bye week in Week 9, including losses in five of six contests dating back to Nov. 9. That win came in Week 13 against a hapless three-win Arizona Cardinals squad. The Buccaneers will need to figure things out quickly if they want to retain their handle on NFC South for the fifth straight year.
The visiting Buccaneers are slight favorites with a 55% chance to win on Sunday, according to ESPN.
Denver Broncos (vs Jacksonville Jaguars)
A pair of extended winning streaks collide as the Jacksonville Jaguars (five consecutive wins) visit the Denver Broncos (12 straight victories) at Empower Field in Denver, Colorado. While Jacksonville needs the win to hold off the surging Houston Texans in the AFC South, Bo Nix and the Broncos haven’t lost at home this season and wrapping up the AFC West would be a lovely holiday gift for Broncos fans this holiday season.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have quietly gone about their business, including victories in six out of their last seven contests. Jacksonville split the season series with Houston, so the division will come down to who has a better stretch over the final three games of the regular season. Jacksonville currently has a one-game advantage entering Week 16.
ESPN’s model suggests the Broncos as a solid favorite with a 58% chance to secure their 13th consecutive win.
Avoid: Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee Titans)
This game falls under the avoid option as the first “meaningless” game of the Patrick Mahomes-era in Kansas City with the Chiefs eliminated from playoff contention following their loss in Week 15. While K.C. should win against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, the Chiefs have only one road win this season, so it wouldn’t be inconceivable for them to get shocked by the upstart Titans.
Cam Ward, the top selection from the 2025 NFL Draft, has led the Titans to two wins during the 2025 season, but those victories came against a pair of the worst teams in the NFL (Arizona and Cleveland). Still, Tennessee has a big opportunity to step up against a likely demoralized opponent from Kansas City looking to finish out the season without additional injury (like the season-ending ACL injury to Mahomes).
Kansas City is a significant road favorite with a 68% chance of victory in Tennessee on Sunday, according to ESPN.
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